Race To The Top: Pre-Game

Thomas W. Carroll, the president of the Foundation for Education Reform and Accountability, provides a sound analysis of states' chances of winning Race to the Top funding in phase one. [Hat tip: Alexander Russo]

I would agree that Florida and Louisiana are the likeliest winners in phase one, and would be surprised if Delaware and Tennessee were not, at least, semifinalists. I'm not as keen on Colorado and Michigan, but agree that Georgia is a likely semifinalist as well. Here are some other possible phase one semifinalists from my vantage point: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Ohio and Rhode Island. Much will depend on how many states make the cut (Rick Hess says 10-15) and where Secretary Duncan draws the cut line.

Semifinalists are expected to be announced this coming week, possibly as early as Monday. Teams from those states will be invited to make a formal presentation before a panel of reviewers in Washington, DC sometime in March. Finalists are expected to be announced in April.

Who are your favorites? Which states am I overlooking? Which am I crazy to even be including in my list of possible semifinalists?

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UPDATE: Education Week weighs in with its picks for RttT finalists.

Phase One winner picks: Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Tennessee

Phase One semifinalist picks: all above plus Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Minnesota, Rhode Island

Wild cards: California, District of Columbia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

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UPDATE 2: Eduflack weighs in with some picks as well.

Barring any real surprises in the interview stage, I'm going with California, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee, and Rhode Island. How does that fare against the $4 billion pool? Cali and Florida will account for $1.4 billion. Ohio picks up $400 million. Indiana and Tennessee get $200 million apiece. Colorado and Louisiana split $300 million. Rhode Island gets $50 million. That's $2.55 billion on the first eight states.

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Surprised?

Is this really any surprise given an education accountability system that grades performance and issues sanctions based on a single indicator: student test scores?

Hat tip: This Week in Education

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Updates on the Race: 01-13-2010

NATIONAL
AFT chief vows to revise teacher-dismissal process (Education Week)

Strong applications versus stakeholder support? (Flypaper)

RttT fire drills ignore the fact that 52% 0f state application is based on PAST reform and achievement (Eduflack)

ALABAMA
Governor Riley links charters, Race chances (Dothan Eagle)

FLORIDA
53 of 67 school districts on board; only 5 with union backing (Orlando Sentinel School Zone blog)

GEORGIA
Governor Purdue pitches performance pay (Atlanta Journal Constitution blog)

ILLINOIS
Bill to strengthen educator evaluations passes state House (The State Journal-Register)

IOWA
Legislation needed to boost state's competitiveness (Des Moines Register)

Governor Culver presses for RttT legislation in State of the State (Des Moines Register blog)

Bill passes first legislative hurdle (Des Moines Register blog)

KENTUCKY
House passes low-performing schools bill (Louisville Courier-Journal)

LOUISIANA
State board endorses application (The Advocate)

MASSACHUSETTS
Editorial: Hold firm on education reform (Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN
State Board of Education uneasy about application (The Detroit News)

NEW YORK
Legislative action needed (Albany Times Union blog)

Editorial: The governor's desperate dash (Albany Times Union)

Lawmakers will vote on charter cap the day application is due (New York Daily News Daily Politics blog)

OHIO
Less than half of state districts sign on; union support expected (The Columbus Dispatch)

PENNSYLVANIA
Philly teachers support Race (Philadelphia Inquirer)

RHODE ISLAND
Lack of union support could weaken state's chances (Providence Journal)

TENNESSEE
Governor Bredesen unveils legislative plan (The Leaf Chronicle)

Governor Bredesen: "Seize the day" (Education Week via Chattanooga Times Free Press)

Governor, teachers reach compromise on teacher evaluations (The Commercial Appeal)

Union approves teacher evaluation based half on student achievement (Nashville Public Radio)

TEXAS
Out of Race (Austin American-Statesman blog)

WISCONSIN
Milwaukee Children's Zone a state focus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

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Updates on the Race: 12-14-2009

NATIONAL:
Who Would Have Guessed The Race Would Look Like This? (Democrats for Education Reform)

36 States to Apply in Round 1 (Education Week Politics K-12 blog)

CALIFORNIA:
Campaign cash from charters driving Governor's, state's goals? (Contra Costa Times)

Editorial: Schools race to -- where, exactly? (Los Angeles Times)

Politics, politics (AP)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: DC gets to apply, too (Washington Post)

GEORGIA: State a 'frontrunner' (Gainesville Times)

LOUISIANA:
State bid would impact teacher evaluation, pay (The Advocate - Baton Rouge)

Educators wary of state plan (The Advocate - Baton Rouge)

MARYLAND: Editorial: Gates rejection a 'wake-up call' (Baltimore Sun)

MASSACHUSETTS: Op-ed from Stand for Children, Black Leaders for Excellence in Education (The Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN:
Race to the trough in Michigan? (Ann Arbor.com)

Editorial: Legislature's 'racing', but to where? (Lansing State Journal)

NEVADA: Editorial: Governor Gibbons' failure to lead (Las Vegas Sun)

NEW YORK:
Strategy to be unveiled (Gotham Schools)

More charters, teacher testing part of plan (Albany Times-Union)

OHIO: State eligibility caught up in budget stand-off? (The Columbus Dispatch)

SOUTH DAKOTA: State probably a 'long shot' (Sioux Falls Argus Leader)

TENNESSEE: State partnership with Battelle to focus on STEM (The Tennesseean)

WASHINGTON: Editorial: 'Beggars can't be whiners' (The News Tribune - Tacoma)

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