Crist Off the Hook?

Predictions that Florida Governor Charlie Crist's veto of a monstrosity of a teacher effectiveness bill back in April 2010 would cause his state to lose the Race to the Top competition have proven false.

Charlie Barone (Democrats for Education Reform), Mike Thomas (Orlando Sentinel columnist), Clayton Christensen, and others wrote at the time that Crist's veto would cost Florida its Phase Two Race to the Top funding. Nope. Even former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Andy Smarick (a favorite to be next New Jersey education commissioner) intimated that Crist's move was the wrong step and could harm Florida. But, lo and behold, the sky did not fall and Republican Crist is still standing (as an independent running for U.S. Senate). And the feds are cutting a $700 million check to the Sunshine State any day now (Orlando Sentinel).

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Who Knew That Race to the Top Would Cause Joblessness?

In cycling races such as the Tour de France, riders tragically have lost their lives particularly in mountainous stages in the Alps or Pyrenees. Fortunately, no one was killed in the making of Race to the Top applications. But one state school chief, New Jersey's Brett Schundler, has lost his job as a result of it.

Read the Newark Star-Ledger's story for more:

Gov. Chris Christie fired state education commissioner Bret Schundler this morning after Schundler refused to resign in the wake of the controversy over the state's loss of up to $400 million in federal school funding.

The state lost a competitive grant contest for education funding by 3 points. While the state lost points across a number of areas for substantive issues, a blunder on one 5-point question has caused an uproar in Trenton. The state lost 4.8 points by seemingly misreading the question, which asked for information from 2008 and 2009 budgets. The state provided information from 2011.

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Race To The Top Phase Two Winners

UPDATED 11:28 a.m. CDT

The complete list of 10 winning applicants:

District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Rhode Island

Here is the official U.S. Department of Education press release and the list of Phase Two scores:

Phase Two Winners:
1. MA - 471.0
2. NY - 464.8
3. HI - 462.4
4. FL - 452.4
5. RI - 451.2
6. DC - 450.0
7. MD - 450.0
8. GA - 446.4
9. NC - 441.6
10. OH - 440.8
------------
Finalists:
11. NJ - 437.8
12. AZ - 435.4
13. LA - 434.0
14. SC - 431.0
15. IL - 426.6
16. CA - 423.6
17. CO - 420.2
18. PA - 417.6
19. KY - 412.4

This was an especially competitive round. And, as you can see above, there was NOT a natural cut-off point in the scores between successful applicants and unsuccessful ones. That's got to make the loss sting all the more for states such as New Jersey, Arizona, Louisiana and South Carolina especially. Just three points separate a funded state (Ohio) and a non-funded state (New Jersey)!

I am most surprised by the inclusion of Hawaii among the winners, but I was impressed by the strength and comprehensiveness of the teaching/leadership portion of its application. It will be interesting to see a full analysis of its very high score -- third highest, trailing only Massachusetts and New York.

The biggest shock to me is the absence of Illinois in the winners' circle. I felt that it had put together one of the more compelling applications and had been ranked 5th overall in Phase One. South Carolina is another strong contender that missed out; it had the 6th highest ranked application in Phase One.

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Race To The Top: Start Spreading The News

Dorie Turner of the Associated Press is reporting via Twitter that New York is one of the winners of Race to the Top, Phase Two. If that is the case -- and heavily favored Florida also is shown the money -- then we are likely looking at fewer than 10 winners today. That is, unless states are funded at less than the maximums that they requested. Under such a "spreading the wealth" scenario, then there could be more winners.

I'm not going to make predictions -- I think the cut off is likely to be determined by a few points here and there. But I still like the chances of Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island, and South Carolina best.

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Race to the Top Analysis: Spreading The Wealth

EPILOGUE (8/24/2010): Well, my predictions below didn't quite pan out. FL and RI came in strong, but IL and SC flopped (but by mere points, of course). I was almost right that with two large states funded -- Florida and New York -- it would limit the number of winners. But the predicted nine became ten with the surprise inclusion of Hawaii (75 mil) among the winners, along with DC (also only 75 mil). For more on the winners, see here.

---

Education Week (and its Politics K-12 blog), the Hechinger Report, the New America Foundation's Ed Money Watch, and the Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education have provided some excellent Race to the Top Phase 2 analysis.

Based on Phase 1 scores, reviews of Phase 2 applications, and other considerations, I believe Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island and South Carolina are locks for Phase 2 funding. [UPDATE (8/4/2010): One thing that should be concerning to Georgia is an extremely low level of district buy-in (14%) to its application. The only two other states below 50% buy-in are California (18%) -- by design -- and Pennsylvania (32%). As a result I've moved Georgia from a 'lock' to a 'strong' contender.]

Further, I think that Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania have strong chances at winning Phase 2 funding. (That would place the remaining finalists -- Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii and New Jersey -- outside the winners' circle.) That said, which and how many states will eventually be funded from the remaining pot of $3.4 billion is largely contingent upon the successes of the Big Three, each eligible to win $700 million: Florida, New York and California. The presence of numerous $400 million eligible states in the mix also has the potential to limit the number of winners.

Let's look at a variety of scenarios, assuming in each case that Florida can bank on the $700 million. Of the three, I think New York has the next best shot at the dollars, with California's chances slightly less. In each case, I have listed the states in Phase One rank order (so feel free to replace any with your preference).

Scenario #1 (Florida only)
TOTAL = $3.375 billion 11 States

STATE Florida	MAX. AWARD $700,000,000	PHASE 1 RANK 4
Georgia	$400,000,000	3
Illinois So. Carolina	$400,000,000 $175,000,000	5 6
Pennsylvania Rhode Island Kentucky	$400,000,000 $75,000,000 $175,000,000	7 8 9
Ohio	$400,000,000	10
Louisiana	$175,000,000	11
No. Carolina	$400,000,000	12
DC	$75,000,000	16

Scenario #2 (Florida & New York)
TOTAL = $3.425 billion 9 States

STATE Florida	MAX. AWARD $700,000,000	PHASE 1 RANK 4
New York Georgia	$700,000,000 $400,000,000	15 3
Illinois So. Carolina	$400,000,000 $175,000,000	5 6
Pennsylvania Rhode Island Kentucky	$400,000,000 $75,000,000 $175,000,000	7 8 9
Ohio	$400,000,000	10

Scenario #3 (Florida, New York & California)
TOTAL = $3.325 billion 8 States

STATE Florida	MAX. AWARD $700,000,000	PHASE 1 RANK 4
New York California Georgia	$700,000,000 $700,000,000 $400,000,000	15 27 3
Illinois So. Carolina	$400,000,000 $175,000,000	5 6
Rhode Island Kentucky	$75,000,000 $175,000,000	8 9
DC	$75,000,000	16

Scenario #4 (Max. Applicants w/ Florida)
TOTAL = $3.4 billion 12 States

STATE Florida	MAX. AWARD $700,000,000	PHASE 1 RANK 4
Georgia	$400,000,000	3
Illinois	$400,000,000	5
So. Carolina	$175,000,000	6
Pennsylvania	$400,000,000	7
Rhode Island	$75,000,000	8
Kentucky	$175,000,000	9
Ohio	$400,000,000	10
Louisiana	$175,000,000	11
Massachusetts	$250,000,000	13
Colorado	$175,000,000	14
DC	$75,000,000	16

Unless Florida somehow manages to fall on its face in Phase 2, I don't think it is realistic to envision more than 12 applicants receiving funding -- and that would require one of the $400 million-eligible states (such as North Carolina or Ohio) to be eclipsed and knocked out by a smaller state ranked lower in Phase 1 (such as Colorado, Massachusetts and/or the District of Columbia) or by Maryland, which did not apply in Phase 1 [see Scenario #4]. So although the U.S. Department of Education has dangled the possibility of as many as 15 Phase 2 winners, I don't see realistically how we can get there.

Related Posts:

• Race to the Top, Phase 2 Finalists
• Race to the Top Applications Posted
• Race to the Top: Picking Favorites

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Race to the Top, Phase 2 Finalists

Education Week's Michele McNeil and Alyson Klein at Politics K-12 have the scoop on the Race to the Top, Phase 2 finalists. There are 19 of them:

• Arizona
• California
• Colorado
• District of Columbia
• Florida
• Georgia
• Hawaii
• Illinois
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• New Jersey
• New York
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• South Carolina

Generally, I think this is about the number of and group of applicants that most expected, including me. The two biggest surprises on the list are Arizona (although it received support from Gates in Phase 2) and Hawaii. There are no shocking omissions from the list, although some felt that the likes of Arkansas, Connecticut, Michigan, Oklahoma and Utah had outside shots at success.

Want to read all the finalists' applications to see what's so good about 'em? You can find links to all the applications here.

Winners are expected to be named by the U.S. Department of Education in late August or early September.

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This Is Rich

This policy proposal from Senate Republican Leader Jon Kyl (of Arizona) with a $678 billion price tag -- yes, BILLION -- puts the hullaballo over the $800 million "edujobs" controversy into some perspective. How about we tap into THAT source of revenue by letting the tax cuts expire to save teachers' jobs and leave the currently authorized education reform programs alone?

From Huffington Post ("Jon Kyl: Extend Bush Tax Cuts for Wealthy Even If They Add To Deficit"):

Top Senate Republican Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) insisted on Sunday that Congress should extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans regardless of their impact on the deficit, even as he and other Republicans are blocking unemployment insurance extensions over deficit concerns.

White House aides immediately seized on the comments. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs wrote on Twitter, "Kyl says wealthy need big Bush tax cuts while middle class families are on their own to fend for themselves as a result of Bush economy."

With concerns over the massive budget deficit, rising income inequality, and an inability to fund existing programs, why again should we extend tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that were bad policy when they were enacted? And this at the same time when Republicans are refusing to extend $30 billion of unemployment benefits for Americans hit hardest by the recession. That's rich.

The Washington Post editorial page weighed in on this issue in today's edition, too.

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Race To The Top Applications Posted

Updated 6/22/2010 12:15 p.m. CDT

As predicted, 35 states plus DC submitted applications to the U.S. Department of Education today in Phase Two of the Race to the Top competition.

Please click on the hyperlink below to view that state's RttT Phase Two application:

Alabama [application]
Arizona [application] [appendices]
Arkansas [application]
California [application] [appendices]
Colorado [application]
Connecticut [application] [appendices]
District of Columbia [application] [appendix A] [appendices B-F]
Florida [application] [appendices]
Georgia [application] [appendices]
Hawaii [application]
Illinois [application] [appendix 1] [appendix 2]
Iowa [application]
Kentucky [application]
Louisiana [application]
Maine [application] [appendices]
Maryland [application]
Massachusetts [application]
Michigan [application] [appendices]
Mississippi [application]
Missouri [application] [appendices]
Montana [application] [appendices]
Nebraska [application] [appendices]
Nevada [application]
New Hampshire [signatures] [A] [B] [C] [D] [E] [F] [competitive] [budget]
New Jersey [cover letter] [A] [B] [C] [D] [E] [F] [STEM]
New Mexico [application] [appendices]
New York [application] [appendices]
North Carolina [application] [appendices]
Ohio [application] [appendices]
Oklahoma [application]
Pennsylvania [application]
Rhode Island [application]
South Carolina [A] [B] [C] [D] [E] [F] [budget]
Utah [application] [appendices]
Washington [application] [appendices]
Wisconsin [application]

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Race to the Top: Picking Favorites

6/25/2010 UPDATE: Per the Capital Times story this morning about Wisconsin's chances, I stand behind my contention that the state is an unlikely Phase Two winner. As is the case with numerous states that fell in the middle or bottom of the pack in Phase One (WI was 26 out of 41 applicants), I don't believe that Wisconsin passed significant enough reforms since then to improve its competitive chances (as compared to Colorado, Connecticut, New York and Oklahoma, for example). However, state education leaders - including State Superintendent Tony Evers - deserve credit for authoring a much stronger proposal this time and for gaining widespread buy-in for the proposed reforms. Hopefully, many of those ideas can be carried forward regardless of the RTTT outcome.

Although this is a joint blog, this post is entirely my own and not Sara's. -- Liam Goldrick


Final Race to the Top Phase Two applications are not yet publicly available, so this may be a bit premature. But everyone likes fun parlor games, right? Plus, I hear that there may be a Race to the Top void to fill.

If one assumes that states with the highest Phase One scores will come in strong again in Phase Two -- and that's a significant "if" -- one can look at recent policy changes to determine which states may have strengthened their hand. Conventional wisdom suggests that Colorado, Louisiana and New York have moved on up as a result of recent legislative activity.

There are numerous wild cards, of course, including six new applicants (Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, and Washington), reduced Phase 2 requested budgets that will change the elements of nearly every state's application, and stronger (or weaker) support for state applications from unions and school districts that may change the overall calculus.

Here is my early look at the competitiveness of states in Phase Two (with their Phase One ranking (if applicable) in parentheses):

FRONTRUNNERS
Colorado (14)
Florida (4)
Georgia (3)
Illinois (5)
Kentucky (9)
Louisiana (11)
Massachusetts (13)
North Carolina (12)
Ohio (10)
Pennsylvania (7)
Rhode Island (8)
South Carolina (6)

That's 12 states. If one believes the U.S. Department of Education's public statements that no more than 10-15 states will be funded in Phase Two, there's not much (any?) room left in the winners' circle, assuming none of these applicants are knocked out of the running.

CONTENDERS
Arkansas (17)
District of Columbia (16)
Maryland (n/a)
Michigan (21)
New Jersey (18)
New York (15)

DARK HORSES
California (27)
Connecticut (25)
Oklahoma (34)
Utah (19)


What's your take? Are there "frontrunners" from Phase One that shouldn't be considered as such? Are there other "dark horses" who should be on this list? Do any of the six new applicants have a real chance?

As state applications become available, we'll take a closer look and provide further analysis as time allows.

• Related Posts: Race To The Top's Dropouts

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Race to the Top's Dropouts

UPDATED 5/28/2010

The deadline for state applications in Phase Two of the Race to the Top (RttT) competition is next Tuesday, June 1st. Only two states, Delaware and Tennessee, succeeded in winning funding in Phase One. The U.S. Department of Education has estimated that 10-15 states will win funding in Phase Two.

With the higher stakes -- more states will be funded this go 'round and this could be the final competition (despite the Obama Administration's request for a third round of RttT funding) -- more skirmishes have broken out, particularly between would-be reformers and teachers' unions. The nastiest of these disputes appears to have been in Minnesota, which apparently scuttled its application as a result. Just check out these quotes:

Governor Tim Pawlenty, 2012 Republican presidential aspirant: "Unfortunately, the DFL-controlled Legislature in Minnesota refuses to pass these initiatives because the they are beholden to Education Minnesota, which is the most powerful interest group in Minnesota. What we saw in this session should be an embarrassment to the DFL-controlled Legislature. They continue to put the interests of union members ahead of the interests of schoolchildren and education accountability."

Education Commissioner Alice Seagren charged that the state had been "bought and sold" by Education Minnesota, the state teachers' union and made "legislators afraid to step up."

Education Minnesota teachers union president Tom Dooher said that Pawlenty was doing "a great disservice to the state of Minnesota" by deciding not to apply for the second-round grants. "The problem with the governor is that if you disagree with him about policy he calls you an obstructionist. Tim Pawlenty has had eight years to do something about eliminating the achievement gap. Now, given one last chance, he does nothing."

Aggressive policy action has occurred in an attempt to win Phase 2 funding. Colorado's new teacher tenure and evaluation law has been widely heralded as a potential model for the nation. Florida's simplistic, poorly designed legislation, which would have based half of a teacher's evaluation and salary on a single test score, was wisely vetoed by Charlie Crist, the state's Republican governor and now-independent candidate for U.S. Senate.

Other states where notable policy changes have passed, potentially boosting Phase Two competitiveness, include Connecticut, Louisiana, Maryland (although on-going disagreements and lack of union support may hurt), North Carolina, and Oklahoma. Legislative efforts continue at the eleventh hour in states like Kentucky, New York (5/28 update), and Pennsylvania. The District of Columbia's IMPACT teacher evaluation system and recent teachers' contract agreement could help its chances, but the lack of support from the Washington Teachers' Union and contentious relationship between the WTU and DC Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee won't help.

All states are busy gathering stakeholder support for their applications. The deal struck in Rhode Island to save the jobs of teachers in Central Falls should boost that state's chances in Phase Two; the recent announcement that more local teachers' unions as well as the state AFT chapter will sign onto the state's application also bodes well. The New Jersey Education Association, which opposed the state's Phase One application, announced its support for Phase Two. [6/1 Update: Apparently, Governor Christie undid this compromise at the 11th hour today.] Other states that have announced greater stakeholder support than in Phase One include Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. Others have set this week as a deadline for districts and unions to support the state application.

Let's look at which states are -- and aren't -- competing in Phase Two. In total, 38 states (and DC) expressed an intent to apply in Phase Two, but by my count 35 states and DC will actually submit an application by the due date (ID, MN and WV filed intents but have since pulled out). By my count, six states which did not submit an application in Phase One are applying in Phase Two: Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada and Washington.

Here's the full breakdown:

OUT (13)
Phase One Applicants (9)
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Minnesota
Oregon
South Dakota
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming

Phase One Non-Applicants (4)
Alaska
North Dakota
Texas
Vermont

IN (36)
Phase One Applicants (30)
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
California (applying in partnership with only six large urban school districts)
Colorado
Connecticut
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Massachusetts (state education commish has suggested state may not apply)
Michigan
Missouri
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Utah
Wisconsin

Phase One Non-Applicants (6)
Maine
Maryland
Mississippi
Montana
Nevada
Washington

PHASE ONE WINNERS (2)
Delaware
Tennessee

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Where to Begin?

Where do I begin in critiquing such wrong-headed and vitriolic analysis of Florida Governor Charlie Crist's veto of SB 6, which would have eliminated tenure for teachers and based their evaluations primarily on a single year of student test scores?

One cannot accurately and fairly evaluate an individual educator's performance by test scores alone, especially based on a single year's worth of data (as the Florida legislation would have done) and particularly for new teachers. I've said it before and before that -- and I'll undoubtedly say it again. On this specific issue, I'll take the "what they said" approach. Read Claus von Zastrow, Sherman Dorn, David Kirp, and Steve Peha who provide the right amount of counsel and insight. Today's blog post by Rick Hess on value-added methodologies is also worth reading.

But, first, I'll say a little more. It appears that a fair number of the forces pushing SB 6 and now bemoaning its veto admit that it was a flawed bill. But, those parties then say, ANYTHING is better than the current system. No doubt the current system needs fixin', but why didn't Florida policymakers craft legislation that took a more nuanced view of teacher effectiveness and which recognized the shortcoming of evaluating teachers based on one year's worth of test scores? Dear Florida and Dear Reformers: Just because you believe the status quo sucks doesn't excuse your lack of effort in designing a reform that sucks just slightly less.

As for politics, it seems like, if anything, especially as Crist is a candidate for US Senate in a Republican primary, this veto was an act of political courage. How former Bushie John Bailey can claim it represents the opposite seems to me to represent fanciful, Republican-style logic that might play at a Sarah Palin rally, but that this Education Optimist ain't buying.

And, as for claims (here and here), that Crist's veto will cost Florida funding in Phase Two of the Race to the Top competition, check back here in September. I predict that Florida will be holding a bag of money at that point, this veto notwithstanding.

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Full Disclosure

The New Teacher Project (TNTP) this week released an excellent analysis of Race to the Top, Phase One state applications, debunking some myths about why some states failed to succeed and offering lessons for states that apply in Phase Two.

My only quibble is the absence of any disclosure from TNTP acknowledging that it has a proprietary interest in the outcome of the Race. Specifically, it touts the states of Louisiana and Rhode Island on its "honor roll," but fails to note anywhere in the document that TNTP is written into both state's applications. It has a stake in those states winning in Phase Two.

As an employee of an organization (New Teacher Center) written into numerous Race to the Top state applications, I am well aware of and try to constantly attend to the need to separate sound, dispassionate policy analysis from proprietary interests. Personally and professionally, I hope that the state of Rhode Island is funded in round two as well, not only because NTC too is written into its application, but because of the applications I've read, I believe Rhode Island's to be among the strongest. But, I believe, it would be inappropriate of me on this blog or through professional communications through my employer to tout the excellence of Rhode Island without making that self-interest clear.

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Teaching and Learning Conditions

I'm catching up on education news and blogging after some well-spent time with our family in New York and Vermont last week....

Both successful Phase One Race to the Top (RttT) states -- Delaware and Tennessee -- plan to conduct a statewide teacher working conditions survey. Was this the secret to each state's victory? Well, not exactly, as the states of Colorado, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Ohio also built such a survey into their applications. Of course, each of those states were among the 16 Phase One semifinalists. So, maybe there is something there.

Independent of RttT, however, such efforts are in line with President Obama’s recent Blueprint for Reform: The Reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which would require states and districts to collect and report teacher survey data on available professional support and working conditions in schools biennially.

Research has demonstrated a connection between positive teaching and learning conditions, teacher retention, and student achievement.

• “There is good evidence to show that teachers’ working conditions matter because they have a direct effect on teachers’ thoughts and feelings—their sense of individual professional efficacy, of collective professional efficacy, of job satisfaction; their organizational commitment, levels of stress and burnout, morale, engagement in the school or profession and their pedagogical content knowledge. These internal states are an important factor in what teachers do and have a direct effect in what happens in the classroom, how well students achieve, and their experience of school.” (Leithwood, 2006)
  
• “Working conditions emerge as highly predictive of teachers’ stated intentions to remain or leave their schools, with leadership emerging as the most salient dimension. Teachers’ perceptions of their working conditions are also predictive of one-year actual departure rates and student achievement, but the predictive power is far lower…Taken together, the working conditions variables account for 10 to 15 percent of the explained variation in math and reading scores across schools, after controlling for individual and school level characteristics of schools.” (Ladd, 2009)
• “[O]ur analysis of teacher mobility showed that salary affects mobility patterns less than do working conditions such as facilities, safety and quality of leadership.” (Hanushek and Rivkin, 2007)
• “…working conditions factors, especially principal support, had more influence on simulated job choice than pay level, implying that money might be better spent to attract, retain or train better principals than to provide higher beginning salaries to teachers in schools with high-poverty or a high proportion of students of color.” (Milanowski et al., 2009)
• A survey of 2,000 educators from California found that 28 percent of teachers who left the profession before retirement indicated that they would come back if improvements were made to teaching and learning conditions. (Futernick, 2007)

Last week's press release from the New Teacher Center goes into greater detail:

“Research has shown that understanding and improving teaching and learning conditions results in increased student success, improved teacher efficacy and motivation, higher teacher retention, and better recruitment strategies that bring educators to hard-to-staff schools,” said Ellen Moir, Chief Executive Officer of the New Teacher Center. “In the past, policymakers have not had the data necessary they need to address educators’ working conditions. Our surveys change this by putting valuable information in the hands of people who make important decisions every day that impact our schools and all those who work and learn in them.”

The New Teacher Center (NTC) assists states and school districts in administering the anonymous, web-based Teaching and Learning Conditions Survey. The NTC has a proven track record of successful administration of teaching and learning conditions surveys in 15 states. In addition to working with state stakeholders to design a customized survey, NTC provides analyses and training materials to help all stakeholders understand and use the Teaching and Learning Conditions Survey results for school improvement.

The Teaching & Learning Conditions Survey has the longest history in North Carolina where policymakers at different levels have utilized Survey data in different ways. Local education leaders have used results at the district level to further bond initiatives. At the state level, data was used in rewriting standards for principals and teachers. The Survey initiative has been so expansive that it has supported the creation of additional funding for professional development in low-performing schools. Results also have led to the development of school leadership training which requires administrators to use Survey data in making school-level improvement decisions.

The news article ('Teacher Surveys Aimed at Swaying Policymakers') from Education Week's Stephen Sawchuk provides additional context:

Despite their differing sample sizes and specific questions, the surveys’ findings about what teachers say they need to be successful are remarkably consistent from instrument to instrument. Some of the top findings: Teachers report that the quality of their schools’ leadership, a say in school decisionmaking, and opportunities to work with their peers affect their own capacity as educators.

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Race to the Top Semifinalists Announced, Analysis

Today the U.S. Department of Education announced [video] that 16 states have been selected as semifinalists in Phase One of the Race to the Top (RttT) competition. Forty-one states (including DC) applied in Phase One.

States selected as semifinalists are:

COLORADO
DELAWARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
FLORIDA
GEORGIA
ILLINOIS
KENTUCKY
LOUISIANA
MASSACHUSETTS
NEW YORK
NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
SOUTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE

These states will be invited to bring a team to Washington, D.C. this month for formal presentations before RttT reviewers. From those presentations, Phase One finalists will be selected. Non-selected states as well as those that did not apply during Phase One will be eligible to apply for funding in Phase Two, applications due on June 1, 2010.

I am somewhat surprised by the inclusion of New York, Pennsylvania and South Carolina, but that surprise is tempered significantly by the fact that 16 states(!) were selected as semifinalists. If there's any state that I'm surprised not to see on this list, it's Indiana and perhaps California, given what I thought was a strong application.

Sixteen states seems like a lot, given the Department's earlier suggestion that only a small number of states would be selected in Phase One and that there would be plenty of money left over for the Phase Two competition. We'll have to see if more states than expected are selected in Phase One, or if most go away disappointed in April and prepare to reapply in Phase Two. It certainly seems like the toughest decisions were not made at this stage of the selection process.

By and large, my assessment last week of the likely candidates was accurate. If I'm brave, and despite Rick Hess's protests, I may offer up my likely Phase One favorites before finalists are announced in April.

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Race To The Top: Pre-Game

Thomas W. Carroll, the president of the Foundation for Education Reform and Accountability, provides a sound analysis of states' chances of winning Race to the Top funding in phase one. [Hat tip: Alexander Russo]

I would agree that Florida and Louisiana are the likeliest winners in phase one, and would be surprised if Delaware and Tennessee were not, at least, semifinalists. I'm not as keen on Colorado and Michigan, but agree that Georgia is a likely semifinalist as well. Here are some other possible phase one semifinalists from my vantage point: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Ohio and Rhode Island. Much will depend on how many states make the cut (Rick Hess says 10-15) and where Secretary Duncan draws the cut line.

Semifinalists are expected to be announced this coming week, possibly as early as Monday. Teams from those states will be invited to make a formal presentation before a panel of reviewers in Washington, DC sometime in March. Finalists are expected to be announced in April.

Who are your favorites? Which states am I overlooking? Which am I crazy to even be including in my list of possible semifinalists?

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UPDATE: Education Week weighs in with its picks for RttT finalists.

Phase One winner picks: Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Tennessee

Phase One semifinalist picks: all above plus Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Minnesota, Rhode Island

Wild cards: California, District of Columbia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

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UPDATE 2: Eduflack weighs in with some picks as well.

Barring any real surprises in the interview stage, I'm going with California, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee, and Rhode Island. How does that fare against the $4 billion pool? Cali and Florida will account for $1.4 billion. Ohio picks up $400 million. Indiana and Tennessee get $200 million apiece. Colorado and Louisiana split $300 million. Rhode Island gets $50 million. That's $2.55 billion on the first eight states.

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Maryland's Taoiseach Proposes Reform

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley and state school Superintendent Nancy Grasmick can finally agree on one thing: O'Malley's proposal to make the state competitive for Race to the Top round two.

Score one for Grasmick? Before Maryland decided not to apply in the first round of the Race to the Top competition -- making it one of only 10 states not to -- O'Malley said that no legislative changes were needed, while Grasmick insisted that they were if Maryland was to submit an application that had a snowball's chance in hell of being successful.

It looks like the Governor has come around. The Baltimore Sun reports that the Governor "wants to add a year to the time it takes public school teachers to achieve tenure and to tie their performance evaluations to data on how well their students are doing" and that Grasmick is "very happy."

A draft of the governor's Education Reform Act of 2010 shows that it includes:

•Lengthening the teacher tenure track from two to three years.

•Requiring that schools provide mentors to new teachers who are in danger of not achieving tenure.

•Making data on student growth a "significant component" of teacher evaluations, one of "multiple measures."

•Providing incentive pay (contingent upon Race to the Top funding) for "highly effective" teachers and principals who serve the bottom 5% of lowest-achieving public schools.

But will the Legislature agree? That remains to be seen, but the fact that the Governor and the state Superintendent could agree -- and that the proposal is supported by the state teachers' unions -- bodes well.

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When Pigs Fly

It's not often I agree with the Wall Street Journal editorial page, but I guess pigs are flying today. The WSJ's take, in today's editorial ("Race To The Middle?"), on how the Race to the Top selection process should occur is on the mark:

To qualify, Mr. Duncan said states had to, among other things, lift caps on charter schools and remove barriers to using student records to identify good teachers and reward them. He's also said that "there will be a lot more losers than winners."

That's a good sign, but Mr. Duncan will be tempted to give more states less money in order to minimize political blow back and in the name of getting all states to make at least some, minimal progress. This is the Lake Wobegon school of education reform, where every state is above average....

But Race to the Top shouldn't be about rewarding a state for its grant-writing. It should use federal leverage to help remove barriers that stand in the way of state and local problem solvers.

The leading reform states are well known. Florida has superior data systems, thanks to reforms under former Governor Jeb Bush, and is upending collective bargaining provisions that prevent merit pay for teachers. Colorado has excelled at creating quality charter schools, while Massachusetts's academic standards are a national model. If states like these get Race to the Top cash, it will send a signal to the rest that they need to do more than mouth the right sentiments or pass a bill. They need to be break political china.

But as long as Race to the Top exists, Mr. Duncan ought to use it to reward only the very best reform states that want the money, perhaps only two or three in the first round.

Hat tip: This Week in Education

Speaking of Mr. Russo, he has provided an excellent resource for those of you who want to dive deep into the state RttT applications. His post provides a link to 22 (and counting!) of the 40 RttT applications filed on Tuesday.

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D-Day

Today is the deadline for state applications in the first round of the Race to the Top grant competition. The easy prognostication to make is that the vast majority of the 39 states (and DC) that apply will have their initial applications rejected and all will reapply in round two, due in June. Most will fail then, too.

Despite the publicly released application scoring rubric, it is difficult to know exactly how the application scoring will play out, based upon who the reviewers are, whether Gates Foundation consultant funding helped certain states frame more compelling applications, stated or implicit pressures to fund only a certain number of applications (especially in round one), the importance lent to district and union buy-in from an implementation and sustainability perspective, and the strength of big-state applications versus small-state applications. To the latter point, there's ONLY $4 billion to be spread around, and the largest states could suck up as much as $700 million apiece. Florida, I believe, is very likely to be funded in round one. California and New York have much more of an uphill battle, and Texas, well, if Gov. Goodhair (thanks, Molly Ivins) has his way, may secede from the nation as well as the Race to the Top competition.

As I've said in a past post, my fervant hope is that states that have enacted 11th-hour bailouts of their Race to the Top prospects will not markedly benefit over states that have demonstrated historic commitment to education reform and the student outcomes that go along with it. Those states that have attempted to strengthen their chances by lifting charter caps, intervening in low-performing schools, raising academic standards, and enacting similar reforms should get some credit. But states that have taken these steps prior to Race to the Top influence should be recognized. By my estimation, states such as Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and others would be appropriately rewarded for such sustained commitment and/or demonstrated results.

That all said, President Obama announced today the inclusion of $1.35 billion in his FY 2011 federal budget for a third year of the Race to the Top competition (WaPo story here). What this means exactly is still unclear, and may not be until the two initial rounds of competition are done. My hope would be that the Obama Adminsitration would use new resources to extend funding for leading states rather than broaden the competition and fund some of the reform leggards out there.

Photo courtesy of davidavery.wordpress.com

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LATEST RACE TO THE TOP UPDATES

NATIONAL
Summary of state responses to the Race (Washington Post)

Last-minute resistance to the Race (New York Times)

District stances on Race to Top plans vary (Education Week)

Turning this Race into a relay (Eduflack)

Toothless Reform? (The Enterprise Blog)

CALIFORNIA
State files application (San Francisco Chronicle)

COLORADO
State files application, doesn't include new evaluation system, has union support (Denver Post)

New law will track teacher training programs grads (Denver Post)

DELAWARE
State board approves teacher evaluation changes (The News Journal)

ILLINOIS
Governor Quinn signs RttT bills (Catalyst Chicago)

Fear of winning Race? (New York Times)

IOWA
221 of 361 school districts sign on (Des Moines Register blog)

KENTUCKY
State board approves new performance measures (Louisville Courier-Journal)

MASSACHUSETTS
Governor signs RttT, ed reform bill (Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN
State application finalized (Lansing State Journal)

NEW JERSEY
Half of state's districts on board (The Star Ledger)

NEW YORK
Legislature takes no action on charter school bills (New York Times)

Bid goes forward, likely without lift of charter cap (Wall Street Journal)

Mayor Bloomberg signs off on RttT plan (New York Post)

OREGON
State application takes shape, union approved (The Oregonian)

RHODE ISLAND
Providence teachers' union sole union affiliate in state to support application (Providence Journal)

SOUTH DAKOTA
Charter school law proposed (Rapid City Argus Leader)

TENNESSEE
Student achievement will count for half of a teacher's evaluation (The Tennessean)

WISCONSIN
State submits bid (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Governor: Wisconsin 'will likely miss out' because of 'a lack of reform in Milwaukee' (Governor Doyle press release)

Editorial: Milwaukee needs a mulligan (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

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