Race To The Top: Pre-Game

Thomas W. Carroll, the president of the Foundation for Education Reform and Accountability, provides a sound analysis of states' chances of winning Race to the Top funding in phase one. [Hat tip: Alexander Russo]

I would agree that Florida and Louisiana are the likeliest winners in phase one, and would be surprised if Delaware and Tennessee were not, at least, semifinalists. I'm not as keen on Colorado and Michigan, but agree that Georgia is a likely semifinalist as well. Here are some other possible phase one semifinalists from my vantage point: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Ohio and Rhode Island. Much will depend on how many states make the cut (Rick Hess says 10-15) and where Secretary Duncan draws the cut line.

Semifinalists are expected to be announced this coming week, possibly as early as Monday. Teams from those states will be invited to make a formal presentation before a panel of reviewers in Washington, DC sometime in March. Finalists are expected to be announced in April.

Who are your favorites? Which states am I overlooking? Which am I crazy to even be including in my list of possible semifinalists?

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UPDATE: Education Week weighs in with its picks for RttT finalists.

Phase One winner picks: Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Tennessee

Phase One semifinalist picks: all above plus Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Minnesota, Rhode Island

Wild cards: California, District of Columbia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

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UPDATE 2: Eduflack weighs in with some picks as well.

Barring any real surprises in the interview stage, I'm going with California, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee, and Rhode Island. How does that fare against the $4 billion pool? Cali and Florida will account for $1.4 billion. Ohio picks up $400 million. Indiana and Tennessee get $200 million apiece. Colorado and Louisiana split $300 million. Rhode Island gets $50 million. That's $2.55 billion on the first eight states.

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Updates on the Race: 01-13-2010

NATIONAL
AFT chief vows to revise teacher-dismissal process (Education Week)

Strong applications versus stakeholder support? (Flypaper)

RttT fire drills ignore the fact that 52% 0f state application is based on PAST reform and achievement (Eduflack)

ALABAMA
Governor Riley links charters, Race chances (Dothan Eagle)

FLORIDA
53 of 67 school districts on board; only 5 with union backing (Orlando Sentinel School Zone blog)

GEORGIA
Governor Purdue pitches performance pay (Atlanta Journal Constitution blog)

ILLINOIS
Bill to strengthen educator evaluations passes state House (The State Journal-Register)

IOWA
Legislation needed to boost state's competitiveness (Des Moines Register)

Governor Culver presses for RttT legislation in State of the State (Des Moines Register blog)

Bill passes first legislative hurdle (Des Moines Register blog)

KENTUCKY
House passes low-performing schools bill (Louisville Courier-Journal)

LOUISIANA
State board endorses application (The Advocate)

MASSACHUSETTS
Editorial: Hold firm on education reform (Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN
State Board of Education uneasy about application (The Detroit News)

NEW YORK
Legislative action needed (Albany Times Union blog)

Editorial: The governor's desperate dash (Albany Times Union)

Lawmakers will vote on charter cap the day application is due (New York Daily News Daily Politics blog)

OHIO
Less than half of state districts sign on; union support expected (The Columbus Dispatch)

PENNSYLVANIA
Philly teachers support Race (Philadelphia Inquirer)

RHODE ISLAND
Lack of union support could weaken state's chances (Providence Journal)

TENNESSEE
Governor Bredesen unveils legislative plan (The Leaf Chronicle)

Governor Bredesen: "Seize the day" (Education Week via Chattanooga Times Free Press)

Governor, teachers reach compromise on teacher evaluations (The Commercial Appeal)

Union approves teacher evaluation based half on student achievement (Nashville Public Radio)

TEXAS
Out of Race (Austin American-Statesman blog)

WISCONSIN
Milwaukee Children's Zone a state focus (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

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Updates on the Race: 01-11-2010

Playing catch up following the holidays and the birth of our second child ... here are the major Race to the Top updates a week before round 1 applications are due on January 19th...

NATIONAL
39 States and DC to apply in round one (U.S. Department of Education)

'Race To Top' Viewed as Template for a New ESEA (Education Week)

'Race To Top' Driving Policy Action Across States (Education Week)

Two State Unions Balking at 'Race To Top' Plans (Education Week)

CALIFORNIA
Assembly passes reform bill (Sacramento Bee)

Governor signs bill to improve state eligibility in Race; opposed by teachers' unions (Los Angeles Times)

Governor seeks to ease teacher firings (Los Angeles Times)

COLORADO
Summary of state plan (INDenver Times)

FLORIDA
Unions: State RttT plan is 'fatally flawed' (Orlando Sentinel)

Editorial: Unions must not walk (Miami Herald)

Editorial: Racing to the top (Orlando Sentinel)

ILLINOIS
Editorial: State legislature to be asked to pass teacher evaluation bill (Chicago Tribune)

KENTUCKY
State to be first to adopt new national academic standards (Lexington Herald-Leader)

LOUISIANA
Less than half of school district sign onto plan (New Orleans Times Picayune)

MASSACHUSETTS
House passes reform bill, would empower superintendents (Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN
Governor Signs Reform Legislation (AP)

MEA, AFT Leaders Told Their Support Isn't Needed (The Grand Rapids Press)

89 Percent of State Schools on Board (The Detroit News)

NEVADA
Governor proposes ban on collective bargaining, repeal of data firewall law (Las Vegas Review-Journal)

NEW JERSEY
Out-going, in-coming governors complicate state application (Eduflack)

Editorial: Race to the bottom (Bergen Record)

NEW YORK
Governor presses for education reforms, including lift of charter cap (New York Times)

City wants state charter cap lifted before signing onto RttT application (Gotham Schools)

OHIO
State seeks to avoid union controversy? (Flypaper via Teacher Beat)

RHODE ISLAND
Teachers unions balking at supporting application (Providence Journal)

TENNESSEE
Teachers' unions sign onto plan to tie student test scores to teacher evaluations (The Commercial Appeal)

Governor's education bills to be consider during special legislative session (The Tennessean In Session blog)

Special session on Race to the Top begins tomorrow (Memphis Daily News)

UTAH
Plan unveiled (The Salt Lake Tribune)

WISCONSIN
State lagging in Race to the Top (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

State seeks $254 million; application won't address mayoral control in Milwaukee (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

WYOMING
State finalizes application (Casper Star-Tribune)

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Updates on the Race: 12-21-2009

NATIONAL
Creative RttT Lawmaking (Politics K-12)

RttT Hopefuls: Clear The Week of March 15, 2010 (Politics K-12)

States Struggle With Pk-20 Data (Education Week)

CALIFORNIA
State senate passes RttT reform bill (AP)

Bill addresses failing schools (San Francisco Chronicle)

Final bill could be passed "before the holidays" (Los Angeles Times)

Assembly Speaker: Race is 'on track' (San Jose Mercury News)

FLORIDA
Teachers union says 'no' to state plan (Teacher Beat)

Unions balking on Race (Orlando Sentinel)

Florida Dems cry foul (St. Petersburg Times - The Gradebook blog)

63 of 67 school districts sign on (Miami Herald)

HAWAII
Failure to address teacher furlough could jeopardize RttT chances (Honolulu Star-Bulletin)

IDAHO
State supe stumps for RttT (Times-News)

Luna: Charter school cap to stay (Times-News)

ILLINOIS
RttT funds could target lowest performing schools (Chicago Daily Herald)

INDIANA
DoE rolls out RttT proposal summary (Journal & Courier)

LOUISIANA
Governor pushes performance pay (New Orleans Times-Picayune)

MARYLAND
Apply in Round 1? Governor: Yes! State Supe: No! (Baltimore Sun)

MASSACHUSETTS
Editorial: More reform needed (Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN
Education reform bill passes (Detroit News)

Reforms pass, including control of failing schools in Detroit (Detroit Free Press)

Editorial: Better than expected (Detroit News)

NEVADA
Governor will wait for second round (Nevada Appeal)

Bill draft would remove state data firewall (Las Vegas Sun)

NEW JERSEY
Expanded school choice could fuel state RttT effort (Philadelphia Inquirer)

NEW YORK
Move your ass, New York (New York Daily News)

OREGON
Two districts sign on (The Oregonian)

RHODE ISLAND
Gist pitches aggressive ed reforms (Providence Journal)

TENNESSEE
Governor's special session: a 'high-pressure gambit' (Nashville City Paper)

Special session will address teacher evaluation (The Tennessean)

WISCONSIN
School district sign-ups underway (Baraboo News Republic)

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Past Updates on the Race to the Top

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Updates on the Race: 12-16-2009

NATIONAL
Is Race to Top an Urban Game? (Education Week Politics K-12 Blog)

Some state officials have a sneaking suspicion that Race to the Top is an urban state's game and that has made some question whether they should apply, at least in Round 1. For instance, Vermont had originally planned to apply for Round 1 of the competition, but is now going to hold off for Round 2.... The state decided to sit out the first round because of the competition's rules on charter schools. Vermont, a largely rural state, doesn't have them, but it does have some other innovative public schools, Knopf said. But, under the RttT regulations, the state can only get up to eight points for its innovative schools, out of a possible 40, since it doesn't have a charter school law.

In North Dakota, state education superintendent Wayne Sanstead told Michele that it can't move quickly enough to make the Jan. 19 deadline for Round 1. Still, when the state applies in Round 2, it will develop a North Dakota-kind-of-plan, he said, which will probably be a lot different than other states' plans because of the rural nature of his state.

Jockeying for Race's Post Position (Eduflack)

Of the 15 states receiving significant help from the Gates Foundation to prepare their applications, 13 are planning on Phase One apps. Not surprisingly, Texas is not on the early intent list (as the Republic of Texas is likely trying to figure out how to make up points for the big dings it will take over its resistance to common core standards. Surprisingly, North Carolina has NOT indicated its intent to submit in Phase One, despite the Tar Heel State's reputation for being a true leader in education reforms over the past three decades.

While the official RttT scoring makes clear that past accomplishments are worth more points than plans for the future, we see a number of states that have made major changes in recent months (firewalls, charter caps, etc.) just to be compliant with Race requirements. States like California, Indiana, Massachusetts, New York, and Wisconsin will have to demonstrate — in just a few short weeks — that recent legislative action is the culmination of a commitment to school improvement, and not simply fast action to win some quick money.

And who is missing from the list, besides North Carolina? Rhode Island is not there, probably indicating that State Supe Deborah Gist is working to do it right (with regard to detailing her aggressive reform agenda in a few hundred pages of prose). But otherwise, the early app list reads like a list of those most likely to win and those most hopeful to win a major prize.

CALIFORNIA
Politics slows reform (USA Today)

School districts wary of Race (Contra Costa Times)

LOUISIANA
School boards association opposes Race (Shreveport Times)

MICHIGAN
Reform jump started but incomplete (Detroit Free Press)

NEW YORK
Regents propose reforms with an eye toward Race to the Top (New York Times City Room blog)

TENNESSEE
Governor calls special session to address state's firewall law (The Tennessean)

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Past Updates on the Race to the Top

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Updates on the Race: 12-14-2009

NATIONAL:
Who Would Have Guessed The Race Would Look Like This? (Democrats for Education Reform)

36 States to Apply in Round 1 (Education Week Politics K-12 blog)

CALIFORNIA:
Campaign cash from charters driving Governor's, state's goals? (Contra Costa Times)

Editorial: Schools race to -- where, exactly? (Los Angeles Times)

Politics, politics (AP)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: DC gets to apply, too (Washington Post)

GEORGIA: State a 'frontrunner' (Gainesville Times)

LOUISIANA:
State bid would impact teacher evaluation, pay (The Advocate - Baton Rouge)

Educators wary of state plan (The Advocate - Baton Rouge)

MARYLAND: Editorial: Gates rejection a 'wake-up call' (Baltimore Sun)

MASSACHUSETTS: Op-ed from Stand for Children, Black Leaders for Excellence in Education (The Boston Globe)

MICHIGAN:
Race to the trough in Michigan? (Ann Arbor.com)

Editorial: Legislature's 'racing', but to where? (Lansing State Journal)

NEVADA: Editorial: Governor Gibbons' failure to lead (Las Vegas Sun)

NEW YORK:
Strategy to be unveiled (Gotham Schools)

More charters, teacher testing part of plan (Albany Times-Union)

OHIO: State eligibility caught up in budget stand-off? (The Columbus Dispatch)

SOUTH DAKOTA: State probably a 'long shot' (Sioux Falls Argus Leader)

TENNESSEE: State partnership with Battelle to focus on STEM (The Tennesseean)

WASHINGTON: Editorial: 'Beggars can't be whiners' (The News Tribune - Tacoma)

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Updates on the Race: 12-11-2009

NATIONAL:
New Teacher-Evaluation Systems Face Obstacles (Education Week)

ALABAMA: Governor touts charter schools (Andalusia Star-News)

CALIFORNIA:
Guvinator will 'veto' Assembly-passed RttT reform bill (San Diego Union-Tribune)

Assembly passes reform bill (Los Angeles Times)

Editorial: 'Assembly failed California's schoolchildren' (San Jose Mercury News)

COLORADO: Educator evaluation changes focus of bill, Race (Denver Post)

DELAWARE: State targeting students at risk of dropping out (The News Journal)

FLORIDA:
State is a serious contender (Eduwonk)

Op-Ed: Ed commish calls Race 'a defining moment' for Florida's schools (Miami Herald)

School districts asked to line up for Race (St. Petersburg Times)

IDAHO: Community meetings focus on RttT (KPVI-TV)

ILLINOIS: Advance Illinois advances RttT blueprint (Catalyst Chicago)

KENTUCKY: State ed dept wil lseek authority to remove superintendents, school board members in struggling districts (Kentucky.com)

LOUISIANA: Controversy surrounds state's revamped RttT proposal (The Advocate - Baton Rouge)

Stronger focus on great teachers and school leaders (New Orleans Times-Picayune)

MARYLAND:
Fordham Foundation calls state 'biggest RttT disappointment' (Flypaper)

Gates Foundation denies state RttT planning support (Baltimore Sun)

State superintendent proposes teacher quality changes (Baltimore Sun)

MICHIGAN: Legislative efforts to strengthen state position in Race on-going (MLive.com)

NEW JERSEY: Outgoing, incoming guv camps scrap over timing of application (The Star-Ledger)

OKLAHOMA: Governor's Office seeks RttT input (The Oklahoman)

TENNESSEE: Governor promotes new partnership to promote math & science (AP)

WEST VIRGINIA: State board calls for RttT reforms (The Charleston Gazette)

WISCONSIN:
State superintendent seeks greater authority to intervene in struggling schools and districts (WisPolitics.com)

Editorial: Mayoral control of city schools the right approach (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)

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Past Updates on the Race to the Top

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Updates on the Race: 12-08-2009

CALIFORNIA:
State can't seem to put one foot in front of the other (Education Week)

District officials wary of Race to the Top (The Press-Enterprise - San Bernardino)

HAWAII: ED official pushes solution to teacher furlough debacle (Honolulu Advertiser)

ILLINOIS: State 'fine tunes' application (Chicago Current)

INDIANA: Disagreement over using student test scores to evaluate teachers (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette)

LOUISIANA: Teacher evaluation reform central to state proposal (The Advocate - Baton Rouge)

MINNESOTA: Star-Tribune editorial says state 'must compete' (Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune)

NEW JERSEY: Led by lame-duck governor, state now WILL apply in round one (NJ.com)

NEW YORK: State senate ed chair asks for clarification of state's eligibility (NY1)

WISCONSIN: Gov. Doyle meets with ED counsel, former Boston sup Payzant on mayoral control (Chicago Tribune)

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Past "Updates on the Race"

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